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In Part 1 we laid out the case for the copper-to-fiber transition via the physics forcing function, the superlinear scaling of connectivity costs, and the TAM repricing that we believe is still underappreciated. Part 2 is our continuation where we connect the thesis to specific companies, specific t
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Key thesis: Connectivity is becoming the binding constraint in AI infrastructure. This will only compound with inference at scale. The transition from copper to optical interconnects is structural and the braoder market is mispricing the secular growth embedded in this shift. The Thesis As GPU clust
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Anthropic just raised $30 billion at a $380 billion valuation and that got most of the headlines, though the more telling figure is the $14 billion current annualized revenue run-rate, achieved less than three years after the company booked its first dollar. Salesforce required 16 years to reach $14
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There is a physical infrastructure dimension to the AI and software story that the market-level debate entirely overlooks. In conversations we had with Michael Dell, and other Dell executives last summer, a thesis emerged that we believe will reshape how enterprises interact with software over the n
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The memory semiconductor industry went from roughly $85–90 billion in revenue at its 2023 trough to a trajectory that reaches $800–850 billion by 2027. That is roughly a 9× increase in four years. No segment of the semiconductor industry has ever grown this fast at this scale. The numbers forecasted
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The market’s reaction to Amazon’s Q4 results tells you everything about where sentiment sits today. The stock is down roughly 20% from its pre-earnings level near $239, having dropped 8% on the earnings release alone despite AWS posting its fastest growth in 13 quarters. The $200 billion capex guide
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We are in the early stages of one of the largest infrastructure buildouts in modern history. The construction of AI-scale computing infrastructure is reshaping the datacenter, power generation, and labor markets simultaneously and there is no sign demand is slowing. This is reflected in signed lease
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The Number That Matters The AI infrastructure buildout is the largest capital deployment cycle in technology history. Combined hyperscaler spending exceeded $400 billion in 2025, with 2026 projections pushing toward ~$600 billion. The bubble bears point to this spending and declare it unsustainable,
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TSMC’s 4Q25 results confirm what we have been saying for months: the AI infrastructure buildout is not slowing down, and TSMC sits at the center of it. Revenue of $33.7B beat the high end of guidance. Gross margin of 62.3% exceeded the guide by over 100 basis points. Management guided to close to 30
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Note: I had the chance to attend both the CES 2026 Financial Analyst QA and the Industry Analyst QA, as well as time with management. I’m sharing nuggets learned from the QA and my meetings, as well as things from the NVIDIA CES 2026 announcements and management commentary that stood out and are tel
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Note for paid subscribers: As we kick off the Dilligence Stack, I felt we needed to publish some anchor reports to set the foundation we will build upon. So, this report is quite long but has needed depth in each section. Each section will get its own deep dive in the coming months as well.…
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There is perhaps no more consequential debate around the technology industry today than whether the current AI infrastructure buildout represents a bubble destined for collapse or the logical, sustainable deployment of mature technology. The numbers are indeed staggering, a root cause of people’s an